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Gold ETFs Are Surging: Here's Why

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On Friday, gold ETFs surged to a one-year high, thanks to a softening U.S. dollar and heightened expectations of a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut following positive macroeconomic indicators from Wall Street.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed its lowest year-over-year increase since early 2021. This indicates inflation is cooling in the United States which may goad the Fed to cut rates soon.

Retail sales in the United States inched up 1% sequentially in July 2024, following a downwardly revised 0.2% drop in June and way better than forecasts of a 0.3% gain. It is the biggest increase since January 2023. This indicates economic resilience.

Why Gold Surged

Spot gold increased 1.3% to $2,489.12 per ounce on Friday, reaching a historic high of $2,500.99 earlier in the day. Gold bullion recorded a weekly gain of 2.4%, due to the dollar index's 0.3% decline, marking its fourth successive week of losses and boosting gold's appeal to international buyers.

The Fed is likely to enact a rate cut in September. There is currently 71.5% probability of a 25-bp rate cut in September (at the time of writing), up from 50% recorded one week ago, per CME FedWatch Tool. If The Fed eases policy, the greenback will likely lose strength and bond yields will fall. Both factors should go in favor of the gold investing.

Limited Gold Reserves

Approximately 187,000 metric tons of gold have been mined to date, with the majority originating from countries like China, South Africa, and Australia. The estimated excavatable gold reserves stand at around 57,000 tonnes, as per one of recent United States Geological Surveys.

Obtaining government permits for mining operations has become more tough, with the process often requiring long time frame and facing greater scrutiny. Plus, many mining projects are planned for remote areas, necessitating the construction of essential infrastructure such as roads, power, and water systems. These requirements make the overall mining process more complex and time-consuming.

These Gold ETFs HIt 52-Week High

Against this backdrop, these gold-linked exchanged-traded funds (ETFs) have hit a 52-week high recently. Investors can keep a close track of these ETFs for future gains.

iShares Global Gold Miners ETF (RING - Free Report) – Up 3.1% last week.

Vaneck Merk Gold Trust (OUNZ - Free Report) – Up 2.54% last week.

GraniteShares Gold Trust Shares (BAR - Free Report) – Up 2.6% last week.

Gold Trust iShares (IAU - Free Report) – Up 2.6% last week.

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